Let’s be honest: the public is completely blind when a former champion drops a couple of fights. They assume the guy is totally washed and flock to the hot new prospect like moths to a flame. That is exactly what is happening with the main event at UFC Vegas 118, and I am salivating at the chance to fade the collective delusion. Gabriel Bonfim is a fun fighter, sure, but plugging him as the definitive favorite against Belal Muhammad is just disrespectful. Belal is coming off a rough patch against elite, sharp strikers, but his fundamental ability to make a fight ugly, slow down the pace, and chain wrestle remains top-tier. Bonfim loves to blow his wad early chasing the finish, but if he doesn’t get it, he wilts. Belal is going to drag him into deep water, turn this into a boring fifteen-to-twenty-five-minute grinding clinic, and remind everyone why he wore gold not that long ago. I am happily locking in Belal as a live underdog.
Next up, I am looking at the co-main between Brendan Allen and Edmen Shahbazyan. The lines here treat Allen like an absolute lock, but his defensive holes are wider than the Grand Canyon. Edmen has explosive power in the first seven minutes of a fight. Allen has a bad habit of getting caught clean early in his bouts before his grappling takes over. If you look at the metrics over on gidstats.com, Allen absorbs way too much damage per minute for a heavy favorite. I am not saying Shahbazyan is a future champion, but at these wide odds, the value is entirely on him landing a massive counter in the first round to cash a massive ticket. It is a high-risk fade, but playing Allen at a massive premium is a losing long-term strategy.
Finally, let's talk about the lightweight scrap between Farès Ziam and Tom Nolan. The bookies have this priced like a completely even pick-em, which tells me they haven't actually watched these guys fight outside of the highlight reels. Nolan is a tall, aggressive, and highly athletic striker, but his defensive positioning leaves him completely exposed to lateral movement. Ziam is one of the most frustrating point-fighters in the division because he is highly disciplined, relies heavily on a stiff jab, and absolutely refuses to engage in a messy brawl. Nolan wants a chaotic firefight, but Ziam is going to stick, move, and kick his legs out from under him for fifteen minutes. It won't be a thrilling watch, but Ziam at near-even money is one of the safest tactical bets on the entire Apex card.